Market Watch

Georgia's dry summer helped save its pecan crop, according to University of Georgia Extension horticulture specialist Lenny Wells. A wet spring and increased scab disease pressure had Wells and other pecan experts pessimistic about this year's pecan crop. However, a lack of rain in June and July spared Georgia's pecan farmers from worsening scab disease. The result is a pecan crop that's expected to reach 85-90 million pounds, Wells estimated. "We had all that scab inoculum built up from last year, and then we started off wet this year, with a lot of early leaf scab in the spring. Luckily, about the time that the nuts really started to size, which is when they're most susceptible to scab, it really dried off and let everybody catch up with fungicide protection," Wells said. "Even where there was a lot of scab pressure, our famers did a really good job of keeping the scab to a minimum, I think." Another encouraging factor in the early pecan ...

Corn prices continue the long retreat from the peak of September 2012, declining to the lowest level since late August 2010. The most recent price weakness reflects both supply and demand considerations. On the supply side, ongoing reports of yields that exceed expectations in many areas suggest that the next USDA forecast of the U.S. average yield will be at least equal and perhaps exceed the September forecast of 155.3 bushels. There is still some uncertainty about the magnitude of harvested acreage that will not be cleared up, at least partially, until the USDA releases the next Crop Production report. Even so, it appears that production will be large enough to result in a sizable buildup in stocks by the end of the current marketing year. On the demand side, the partial shutdown of federal government activities leaves a void in the usual flow of weekly data, including export sales, export inspections, livestock slaughter, and broiler chick placements. The U.S. Energy Inform...

The pace of U.S. beef and pork exports increased sharply in March, driven by double-digit increases to leading markets Mexico, the China/Hong Kong region and South Korea, according to statistics released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. pork exports reached their highest monthly total since October 2012: 209,704 metric tons (mt) valued at $606.7 million, increasing 29 percent in both volume and value over March 2013. Exports of U.S. beef rose 12 percent in volume to 93,380 mt valued at $516.2 million, an increase of 17 percent. When measured in proportion to overall U.S. beef and pork production, March exports also showed gains. Total pork exports (muscle cuts plus variety meat) equated to 31.5 percent of total U.S. pork production in March (26 percent of muscle cuts alone) versus 28 and 23.5 percent, respectively, a year ago. Beef exports accounted for 14 percent of total production and 11 percent of muscle cuts – up from 12 and 9 perce...

Spring and summer weather may be unpredictable but everything else associated with beef cattle production looks optimistic for 2014 according to Eldon Cole, livestock specialist with University of Missouri Extension. “I hear beef producers talk about tight margins involved in practices like vaccinating, deworming, implanting, supplement feeding, fly control and a few others,” said Cole. “But the way the cattle price situation is now this year could be the time to perform some of the practices you’ve backed away from in the past.” Cole says profit margins are projected to be at record levels this year and likely next year for all classes of cattle. That means this could be the year to experiment a little with a herd. “Over the years, I’ve stressed the importance of improving the genetics in our cattle.  We’ve made progress but improvement can be made to practices that allow those genetics to be expressed,” said Cole. “So when management practices may not have appeared to be ec...

"With only four giant meatpackers in the market today, the cash market for cattle has become competitive in name only.  Just 25 or 30 years ago, a cattle producer might have had a dozen meatpackers to choose from. Fattened cattle were sold at auction barns where meatpackers big aggressively for the best animals, one upping another in heated auctions. It was the best kind of price discovery, transparent and built on vigorous competition. Bad cattle fetched low prices, the best cattle fetched the highest price the market would bear. "Those auctions for finished cattle have ended. The market, such as it is, is played out in a series of phone calls as meatpackers dial up the feedlots and tell them what they are willing to pay. The competition can be pallid. If two meatpackers don't want to buy cattle during any given week, for example, that only leaves two buyers to choose from: not the best scenario for igniting a bidding war. If three of the meatpackers aren't in the...

Thanks to increased global grain production and lower domestic demand for grain for ethanol, crop producers will find 2014 to be tougher than the past few years and should prepare now for lower prices. “Prices reflect that we have moved from an era of scarcity to one of adequate inventories and prices have responded by moving lower,” said Matt Roberts, an Ohio State University Extension economist. “We are already seeing lower prices come into the market, and unless U.S. or South American acreage declines, those prices are likely to continue to move lower. “The prices we had earlier in the year aren’t guaranteed to return.” Thanks to several factors including no growth in ethanol demand and expanded global crop acreage, markets are moving back toward matching supply and demand, Roberts said. Add another year of 160 or more bushels per acre yields on corn and 42 bushels per acre soybean yields, and growers can expect to see even lower prices that are well below the cost of produ...

A strong performance by the top three international markets kept U.S. beef exports on an upward path in August, according to statistics released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef sales to Japan, Mexico and Canada all posted solid gains in August along with a resurgent Taiwan market as overall U.S. beef exports grew 5 percent in volume and 16 percent in value compared to year-ago levels, reaching 105,544 metric tons valued at $563.3 million. For the first eight months of 2012, beef exports are up 1 percent in volume and 10 percent in value to 767,017 metric tons valued at $4.01 billion. The continued absence of the Russian market – closed to U.S. beef and pork products since February – continues to hinder exports. Excluding Russia, U.S. beef exports are up 8 percent in volume and 16 percent in value. “Challenges appear in many forms, including market closures and disruptions, international competition and product oversupply,” said Philip Sen...