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Showing posts from July, 2013

Why The Collapse in Old-Crop Soybean Prices?

A sharp break in old-crop soybean prices and basis means that the market believes that supplies will be fully adequate until the harvest of the new crop begins in six or seven weeks, according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good. “For that to be the case, the domestic crush in July and August would have   to be down sharply from the level of crush last year and sharply below the pace in June of this year.” For old-crop soybean stocks at the end of the year to be at a pipeline level   of 125 million bushels, and to accommodate exports of 1.33 billion bushels, the size of the domestic crush for the year ending August 31 will be limited to 1.66 billion bushels. That is 2.5 percent less than the crush in the previous year. Based on estimates from the National Oilseed Processors Association, the  domestic crush exceeded that of last year in each of the first five months of the current marketing year (September 2012 through January 2013). The crush was about eq