Thursday, September 8, 2011

Trade Expecting Lower Corn Production In September Crop Report

Commodity market analysts expect lower U.S.corn and soybean production estimates in next week's crop production report from the Department of Agriculture. Ohio State University agricultural economist Matt Roberts says that could lead to marketing opportunities for farmers.

"The market is really most interested in new information on yields. Since the August report came out, six or seven major
marketing services gave their own yield forecasts, and they've been all over the place."

Roberts said those private estimates ranged from as low as 143
bushels per acre for corn yield to as high as 152 bushels per acre. A yield estimate from USDA near or outside one of those extremes would likely lead to aggressive action in the corn market.

Specifically, Roberts said, the market consensus is a corn price based on a yield below 151 bushels per acre nationally, and anything above that mark will spark a significant selloff.

"A lot of the private analytical scuttlebutt centers on the
Eastern Corn Belt, and how things fared in August. ProFarmer, for example, came out with significantly lower estimates for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio."

Because of the lateness of planting in states like Ohio, very few harvest reports are available yet from major corn producing states, and Roberts said the few areas of the country already shelling corn are reporting widely varied yields.

USDA will release its August estimate of crop yields, as
well as updated supply and demand estimates, Monday, Sept. 12.

Ohio State University Extension
Matt Roberts