2012 Corn Yield Forecast Below Average

Irrigated corn yield potential is predicted to be 2-8% below long-term average, while dryland yield potential in much of the Corn Belt will be moderately to severely reduced, falling 22-67% below normal.

To forecast potential production at 12 sites across the Corn Belt University of Nebraska–Lincoln crop experts used a "Hybrid-Maize model" to estimate end-of-season yield potential based on actual weather up to August 27, and historical long-term weather data to complete the season using data from each of the past 30 years.

Simulations were run for dryland corn in Iowa, Illinois, and South Dakota, and for both irrigated and dryland corn in Nebraska. Simulations were based on the typical planting date, hybrid relative maturity, plant population, and soil properties at each location.

The bottom line is that 2012 irrigated yields will be moderately lower than the long-term averages (2-8% below normal), while dryland corn yield potential in much of the Corn Belt will be moderately to severely reduced (22-67% below normal).

It is important to keep in mind that yields can be even lower at places where both prolonged drought and high temperature stress at pollination have occurred. Also, greater field-scale variability is being observed this year in irrigated fields due to the inability of some irrigation systems to keep up with crop water use demand, problems with pivot irrigation nozzles and uneven watering, and additional stresses from insects and diseases. Such problems can contribute to reduced yields at irrigated sites of more than the 2-8% simulated by the model.

Source: Cropwatch, University of Nebraska–Lincoln

Cattle Market Falls Back

After a couple weeks of higher holiday trade, fed cattle prices settled back last week. The 5-Area slaughter steer price averaged $105.46/cwt on a live weight basis, $0.82/cwt lower than the previous week. Dressed prices were down about $1/cwt as well. Choice boxed beef gained nearly $4/cwt last week to average $165.81/cwt. Feeder cattle volume picked up significantly in the first full week of the year. While price comparisons to the previous week weren’t available in several markets, generally higher prices were noted. The price for yearlings in Nebraska averaged almost $3/cwt higher, while 500-600 lb calves were more than $10/cwt higher. Through Thursday of last week, corn prices were $0.14/bu lower, basis Omaha, NE. Prices for DDGS and WDGS were up another $2-4/ton last week in Nebraska. Source: Darrell R. Mark, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska–Lincoln Farm Supply Beef Animal Husbandry Books Farm Magazines Beef Cattle: Keeping a Small-Scale Herd fo...

U.S. Pork, Beef Exports Surge in March

The pace of U.S. beef and pork exports increased sharply in March, driven by double-digit increases to leading markets Mexico, the China/Hong Kong region and South Korea, according to statistics released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. pork exports reached their highest monthly total since October 2012: 209,704 metric tons (mt) valued at $606.7 million, increasing 29 percent in both volume and value over March 2013. Exports of U.S. beef rose 12 percent in volume to 93,380 mt valued at $516.2 million, an increase of 17 percent. When measured in proportion to overall U.S. beef and pork production, March exports also showed gains. Total pork exports (muscle cuts plus variety meat) equated to 31.5 percent of total U.S. pork production in March (26 percent of muscle cuts alone) versus 28 and 23.5 percent, respectively, a year ago. Beef exports accounted for 14 percent of total production and 11 percent of muscle cuts – up from 12 and 9 perce...

Low Milk Prices Push Dairy Farm Consolidation

A long period of low milk prices will likely accelerate dairy-farm consolidation in Pennsylvania, according to an industry expert in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences. Chad Dechow, associate professor of dairy cattle genetics, sees the United States dairy industry migrating more toward the hog industry model. A sizable contingent of small farms that can produce milk cheaply, rely on nonfarm income sources, or incorporate a niche market will remain. The majority of milk, however, will be produced by a limited number of very large operations with several thousand or more cows spread across "satellite dairies." "We are likely to see fewer single-site, large-family dairies," he said. "Much of this consolidation in Pennsylvania will come from large family dairy farms that continue to grow and some operators may come from Western dairies that purchase satellite dairies farther east." "Unfortunately, some 1,000-cow operations that would have ...

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