2012 Corn Yield Forecast Below Average

Irrigated corn yield potential is predicted to be 2-8% below long-term average, while dryland yield potential in much of the Corn Belt will be moderately to severely reduced, falling 22-67% below normal.

To forecast potential production at 12 sites across the Corn Belt University of Nebraska–Lincoln crop experts used a "Hybrid-Maize model" to estimate end-of-season yield potential based on actual weather up to August 27, and historical long-term weather data to complete the season using data from each of the past 30 years.

Simulations were run for dryland corn in Iowa, Illinois, and South Dakota, and for both irrigated and dryland corn in Nebraska. Simulations were based on the typical planting date, hybrid relative maturity, plant population, and soil properties at each location.

The bottom line is that 2012 irrigated yields will be moderately lower than the long-term averages (2-8% below normal), while dryland corn yield potential in much of the Corn Belt will be moderately to severely reduced (22-67% below normal).

It is important to keep in mind that yields can be even lower at places where both prolonged drought and high temperature stress at pollination have occurred. Also, greater field-scale variability is being observed this year in irrigated fields due to the inability of some irrigation systems to keep up with crop water use demand, problems with pivot irrigation nozzles and uneven watering, and additional stresses from insects and diseases. Such problems can contribute to reduced yields at irrigated sites of more than the 2-8% simulated by the model.

Source: Cropwatch, University of Nebraska–Lincoln

U.S. Pork, Beef Exports Surge in March

The pace of U.S. beef and pork exports increased sharply in March, driven by double-digit increases to leading markets Mexico, the China/Hong Kong region and South Korea, according to statistics released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. pork exports reached their highest monthly total since October 2012: 209,704 metric tons (mt) valued at $606.7 million, increasing 29 percent in both volume and value over March 2013. Exports of U.S. beef rose 12 percent in volume to 93,380 mt valued at $516.2 million, an increase of 17 percent. When measured in proportion to overall U.S. beef and pork production, March exports also showed gains. Total pork exports (muscle cuts plus variety meat) equated to 31.5 percent of total U.S. pork production in March (26 percent of muscle cuts alone) versus 28 and 23.5 percent, respectively, a year ago. Beef exports accounted for 14 percent of total production and 11 percent of muscle cuts – up from 12 and 9 perce

U.S. Beef Exports Climb, Pork Steady

U.S. beef exports set new records in August with export value topping $750 million for the first time, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). August pork exports were fairly steady with last year’s volume, but retaliatory duties in key markets continued to pressure pork export value. August beef exports totaled 119,850 metric tons (mt), up 7 percent from a year ago, valued at $751.7 million – up 11 percent year-over-year and easily exceeding the previous record of $722.1 million reached in May 2018. For January through August, beef exports totaled 899,300 mt, up 9 percent from a year ago, while value climbed 18 percent to $5.51 billion. August exports accounted for 13.2 percent of total beef production, up from 12.5 percent a year ago. For beef muscle cuts only, the percentage exported was 11.2 percent, up from 10.4 percent last year. For January through August, exports accounted for 13.5 percent of total beef production and 1

Pork Exports Still Down

U.S. beef exports remained on a record-shattering value pace in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October pork exports trended seasonally higher compared to recent months but were still below the results posted in October 2017. Lamb export volume in October more than doubled year-over-year, while value increased nearly 50 percent. October pork export volume was 207,725 mt, the largest since May but still 2 percent lower year-over-year, reflecting smaller variety meat exports. Export value ($536.5 million) was also the largest since May but still down 5 percent from a year ago. For January through October, pork exports were 1 percent above last year’s record pace at 2.02 million mt, while value was also up 1 percent to $5.33 billion. For pork muscle cuts only, January-October exports increased 5 percent from a year ago in volume (1.63 million mt), valued at $4.43 billion (up 2 percent). Source: U.S. Meat Export Fed

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