Trade Expecting Lower Corn Production In September Crop Report

Commodity market analysts expect lower U.S.corn and soybean production estimates in next week's crop production report from the Department of Agriculture. Ohio State University agricultural economist Matt Roberts says that

could lead to marketing opportunities for farmers.

"The market is really most interested in new information on yields. Since the August report came out, six or seven major
marketing services gave their own yield forecasts, and they've been all over the place."

Roberts said those private estimates ranged from as low as 143
bushels per acre for corn yield to as high as 152 bushels per acre. A yield estimate from USDA near or outside one of those extremes would likely lead to aggressive action in the corn market.

Specifically, Roberts said, the market consensus is a corn price based on a yield below 151 bushels per acre nationally, and anything above that mark will spark a significant selloff.

"A lot of the private analytical scuttlebutt centers on the
Eastern Corn Belt, and how things fared in August. ProFarmer, for example, came out with significantly lower estimates for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio."

Because of the lateness of planting in states like Ohio, very few harvest reports are available yet from major corn producing states, and Roberts said the few areas of the country already shelling corn are reporting widely varied yields.

USDA will release its August estimate of crop yields, as
well as updated supply and demand estimates, Monday, Sept. 12.

Source:
Ohio State University Extension
Matt Roberts
614-688-8686

Pork Exports Still Down

U.S. beef exports remained on a record-shattering value pace in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October pork exports trended seasonally higher compared to recent months but were still below the results posted in October 2017. Lamb export volume in October more than doubled year-over-year, while value increased nearly 50 percent. October pork export volume was 207,725 mt, the largest since May but still 2 percent lower year-over-year, reflecting smaller variety meat exports. Export value ($536.5 million) was also the largest since May but still down 5 percent from a year ago. For January through October, pork exports were 1 percent above last year’s record pace at 2.02 million mt, while value was also up 1 percent to $5.33 billion. For pork muscle cuts only, January-October exports increased 5 percent from a year ago in volume (1.63 million mt), valued at $4.43 billion (up 2 percent). Source: U.S. Meat Export Fed...

Low Milk Prices Push Dairy Farm Consolidation

A long period of low milk prices will likely accelerate dairy-farm consolidation in Pennsylvania, according to an industry expert in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences. Chad Dechow, associate professor of dairy cattle genetics, sees the United States dairy industry migrating more toward the hog industry model. A sizable contingent of small farms that can produce milk cheaply, rely on nonfarm income sources, or incorporate a niche market will remain. The majority of milk, however, will be produced by a limited number of very large operations with several thousand or more cows spread across "satellite dairies." "We are likely to see fewer single-site, large-family dairies," he said. "Much of this consolidation in Pennsylvania will come from large family dairy farms that continue to grow and some operators may come from Western dairies that purchase satellite dairies farther east." "Unfortunately, some 1,000-cow operations that would have ...

Beef and Pork Exports Down

U.S. beef and pork exports opened 2021 below the large volumes posted a year ago, according to January data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports totaled 105,047 metric tons (mt) in January, down 2% from a year ago, while value slipped 3% to $653 million. The decline was due mainly to lower beef variety meat shipments, as muscle cut exports were steady with January 2020 at 81,398 mt, valued at $584.4 million (down 1%) and accounted for a larger share of production than a year ago. January beef exports were very strong to South Korea and continued to gain momentum in China. Following a down year in 2020, exports also rebounded to the Middle East. January pork exports totaled 248,656 mt, down 9% from a year ago but slightly above USMEF's projections. Export value was down 13% to $642.8 million. Pork muscle cut exports were down 11% in volume (208,234 mt) and 15% in value ($551.3 million), while pork variety meat shipments trended modes...

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