Trade Expecting Lower Corn Production In September Crop Report

Commodity market analysts expect lower U.S.corn and soybean production estimates in next week's crop production report from the Department of Agriculture. Ohio State University agricultural economist Matt Roberts says that

could lead to marketing opportunities for farmers.

"The market is really most interested in new information on yields. Since the August report came out, six or seven major
marketing services gave their own yield forecasts, and they've been all over the place."

Roberts said those private estimates ranged from as low as 143
bushels per acre for corn yield to as high as 152 bushels per acre. A yield estimate from USDA near or outside one of those extremes would likely lead to aggressive action in the corn market.

Specifically, Roberts said, the market consensus is a corn price based on a yield below 151 bushels per acre nationally, and anything above that mark will spark a significant selloff.

"A lot of the private analytical scuttlebutt centers on the
Eastern Corn Belt, and how things fared in August. ProFarmer, for example, came out with significantly lower estimates for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio."

Because of the lateness of planting in states like Ohio, very few harvest reports are available yet from major corn producing states, and Roberts said the few areas of the country already shelling corn are reporting widely varied yields.

USDA will release its August estimate of crop yields, as
well as updated supply and demand estimates, Monday, Sept. 12.

Source:
Ohio State University Extension
Matt Roberts
614-688-8686

U.S. Beef Exports Climb, Pork Steady

U.S. beef exports set new records in August with export value topping $750 million for the first time, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). August pork exports were fairly steady with last year’s volume, but retaliatory duties in key markets continued to pressure pork export value. August beef exports totaled 119,850 metric tons (mt), up 7 percent from a year ago, valued at $751.7 million – up 11 percent year-over-year and easily exceeding the previous record of $722.1 million reached in May 2018. For January through August, beef exports totaled 899,300 mt, up 9 percent from a year ago, while value climbed 18 percent to $5.51 billion. August exports accounted for 13.2 percent of total beef production, up from 12.5 percent a year ago. For beef muscle cuts only, the percentage exported was 11.2 percent, up from 10.4 percent last year. For January through August, exports accounted for 13.5 percent of total beef production and 1

U.S. Pork, Beef Exports Surge in March

The pace of U.S. beef and pork exports increased sharply in March, driven by double-digit increases to leading markets Mexico, the China/Hong Kong region and South Korea, according to statistics released by the USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. pork exports reached their highest monthly total since October 2012: 209,704 metric tons (mt) valued at $606.7 million, increasing 29 percent in both volume and value over March 2013. Exports of U.S. beef rose 12 percent in volume to 93,380 mt valued at $516.2 million, an increase of 17 percent. When measured in proportion to overall U.S. beef and pork production, March exports also showed gains. Total pork exports (muscle cuts plus variety meat) equated to 31.5 percent of total U.S. pork production in March (26 percent of muscle cuts alone) versus 28 and 23.5 percent, respectively, a year ago. Beef exports accounted for 14 percent of total production and 11 percent of muscle cuts – up from 12 and 9 perce

Pork Exports Still Down

U.S. beef exports remained on a record-shattering value pace in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October pork exports trended seasonally higher compared to recent months but were still below the results posted in October 2017. Lamb export volume in October more than doubled year-over-year, while value increased nearly 50 percent. October pork export volume was 207,725 mt, the largest since May but still 2 percent lower year-over-year, reflecting smaller variety meat exports. Export value ($536.5 million) was also the largest since May but still down 5 percent from a year ago. For January through October, pork exports were 1 percent above last year’s record pace at 2.02 million mt, while value was also up 1 percent to $5.33 billion. For pork muscle cuts only, January-October exports increased 5 percent from a year ago in volume (1.63 million mt), valued at $4.43 billion (up 2 percent). Source: U.S. Meat Export Fed

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