Trade Expecting Lower Corn Production In September Crop Report

Commodity market analysts expect lower U.S.corn and soybean production estimates in next week's crop production report from the Department of Agriculture. Ohio State University agricultural economist Matt Roberts says that

could lead to marketing opportunities for farmers.

"The market is really most interested in new information on yields. Since the August report came out, six or seven major
marketing services gave their own yield forecasts, and they've been all over the place."

Roberts said those private estimates ranged from as low as 143
bushels per acre for corn yield to as high as 152 bushels per acre. A yield estimate from USDA near or outside one of those extremes would likely lead to aggressive action in the corn market.

Specifically, Roberts said, the market consensus is a corn price based on a yield below 151 bushels per acre nationally, and anything above that mark will spark a significant selloff.

"A lot of the private analytical scuttlebutt centers on the
Eastern Corn Belt, and how things fared in August. ProFarmer, for example, came out with significantly lower estimates for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio."

Because of the lateness of planting in states like Ohio, very few harvest reports are available yet from major corn producing states, and Roberts said the few areas of the country already shelling corn are reporting widely varied yields.

USDA will release its August estimate of crop yields, as
well as updated supply and demand estimates, Monday, Sept. 12.

Source:
Ohio State University Extension
Matt Roberts
614-688-8686

U.S. Beef Exports Climb, Pork Steady

U.S. beef exports set new records in August with export value topping $750 million for the first time, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). August pork exports were fairly steady with last year’s volume, but retaliatory duties in key markets continued to pressure pork export value. August beef exports totaled 119,850 metric tons (mt), up 7 percent from a year ago, valued at $751.7 million – up 11 percent year-over-year and easily exceeding the previous record of $722.1 million reached in May 2018. For January through August, beef exports totaled 899,300 mt, up 9 percent from a year ago, while value climbed 18 percent to $5.51 billion. August exports accounted for 13.2 percent of total beef production, up from 12.5 percent a year ago. For beef muscle cuts only, the percentage exported was 11.2 percent, up from 10.4 percent last year. For January through August, exports accounted for 13.5 percent of total beef production and 1...

Muscle Cuts Make Export Gains

August exports of U.S. beef and pork muscle cuts were above last year's strong volumes, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Variety meat exports were lower than a year ago, due in part to the lack of available labor required to harvest and export some items. Led by record-large demand in South Korea and Taiwan, beef muscle cut exports were the largest in more than a year at 89,148 metric tons (mt), up 3.5% year-over-year, while export value increased slightly from a year ago to $611 million. August muscle cut exports also set new records in China and Indonesia and beef exports to Canada continued to gain momentum. Combined beef/beef variety meat exports were 109,752 mt in August, down 4.5% from a year ago. Export value was $673.8 million, down 2% from a year ago but the highest since March. For January through August, beef muscle cut exports were 6% below last year's pace in volume (627,248 mt) and 9% lower in value ($4....

U.S. Beef Exports Soar, But Pork Suffers Under Tariffs

July exports of U.S. pork and beef were higher than a year ago, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export value results were mixed, with beef exports posting another near-record month while pork export value declined, reflecting the impact of retaliatory duties imposed by Mexico and China. Pork exports totaled 176,413 metric tons (mt) in July, up 1.5 percent from a year ago, valued at $465.3 million – down 5 percent year-over-year and the lowest monthly value since February 2016. For the first seven months of the year, pork exports remained 2 percent ahead of last year’s record volume pace at 1.45 million mt, while value was up 3 percent to $3.83 billion. Led by spectacular performance in South Korea and strong growth in Japan, Taiwan and Latin America, July beef exports climbed 12 percent in volume to 116,575 mt, valued at $722 million – up 16 percent from a year ago and just slightly below the May 2018 record of $722.1 mi...

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