Market Watch

As a result of the March 29th USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the outlook for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices has changed somewhat for both the “old crop” 2017/18 and “new crop” 2018/19 marketing years.   With lower 2018 U.S. corn planted acres forecast in the Prospective Plantings report than previous USDA projections or market expectations, prospects for 2018 U.S. corn production has been reduced.  At the same time, higher than expected U.S. March 1st corn stocks in the Grain Stocks reporthave signaled lower than expected usage of corn for livestock feeding during December‐February 2018 and in “old crop” MY 2017/18 than has been anticipated. Following these USDA’s March 29th reports, “old crop” MAY 2018 CME corn futures prices have traded sharply higher.  The day of the reports, MAY 2018 corn futures opened at $3.73 ¾, trading as high as $3.89 ¼ per bushel before closing up $0.14 ¼ for the day at $3.87 ¾.  “New crop” DEC 2018 cor...

January exports of U.S. beef were significantly higher than the large totals of a year ago while pork exports were steady in volume and increased in value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports totaled 105,486 metric tons (mt) in January, up 9 percent year-over-year, while export value surged 21 percent to $624.4 million. Exports accounted for 12.4 percent of total beef production in January, up slightly from a year ago. For muscle cuts only, the percentage exported increased from 9.5 percent to 10.1 percent. Beef export value averaged $293.06 per head of fed slaughter, up 14 percent year-over-year. January pork exports totaled 203,488 mt, steady with last year’s strong volume, while export value increased 7 percent to $545.6 million. Pork exports accounted for 24.7 percent of total pork production, down from 26.2 percent a year ago. For muscle cuts only, the percentage exported declined slightly to 21.5 percent....

U.S. pork exports remained ahead of last year’s record volume pace, and beef exports are poised to break $7 billion this year for only the second time, according to October export results released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October pork exports were the largest since May, totaling 211,592 metric tons (mt), up 5 percent from a year ago, valued at $565.4 million, up 8 percent. Through the first 10 months of the year, pork exports increased 8 percent in volume (2.005 million mt) and 10 percent in value ($5.28 billion) from the same period last year. Exports accounted for 25.4 percent of total pork production in October (steady with last year) and 21.6 percent for muscle cuts only (up slightly from a year ago). For January through October, these ratios increased about one percentage point from a year ago to 26.4 percent of total production and 22 percent for muscle cuts. October export value averaged $51.41 per head slaughtered, up 9 percent fro...

U.S. beef exports remained well above last year’s pace in July, posting one of the highest monthly export value totals on record, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). July pork export volume dipped below its year-ago level for the first time in 15 months, with export value also down slightly. July beef exports totaled 104,488 metric tons (mt), up 5 percent year-over-year, while export value reached $623.7 million – up 18 percent from a year ago and the highest since December 2014. For January through July, exports increased 11 percent in volume (711,364 mt) and 15 percent in value ($3.97 billion) compared to the first seven months of last year. Exports accounted for 13.2 percent of total U.S. beef production in July and 10.7 percent for muscle cuts only. These were the highest ratios of 2017, but down from 14.2 percent and 11 percent, respectively, last July. For January through July, beef exports accounted for 12.8 pe...

U.S. pork and beef exports posted a strong May performance, increasing significantly from the previous month and from year-ago levels, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports reached 222,015 metric tons (mt) in May, up 11 percent year-over-year and the fourth-largest monthly volume on record. Pork export value was $583.2 million, up 16 percent. For January through May, exports increased 14 percent from a year ago in volume (1.05 million mt, a record pace) and 18 percent in value ($2.68 billion). Even with the growth in U.S. pork production, exports account for a larger share in 2017. May exports equated to 29.4 percent of total production and just under 25 percent for muscle cuts only – up from 28.4 percent and 24.3 percent, respectively, last year. Through the first five months of 2017, exports accounted for 27.9 percent of total production and 23.2 percent for muscle cuts (up from 25.2 percent and 21.3 perce...

U.S. red meat exports continued to build momentum in November, highlighted by a new monthly volume record for pork exports. Both pork and beef exports exceeded year-ago levels by more than 20 percent in both volume and value, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). November pork exports totaled 225,757 metric tons (mt), up 24 percent year-over-year and breaking the previous record (218,132 mt) set in October 2012. Export value was $586.8 million, up 30 percent from a year ago and the highest since May 2014. For January through November, pork export volume was up 7 percent from a year ago to 2.09 million mt, while export value increased 5 percent to $5.38 billion. Even with U.S. pork production reaching record levels, exports are accounting for a larger share. November export volume equated to 28 percent of total production and 23 percent for muscle cuts only – substantial increases over the November 2015 ratios of 24 perce...

U.S. red meat exports ended the first half of 2016 on a positive note, as June export values for both pork and beef were the highest of the year. June also marked the second consecutive month of solid year-over-year volume growth, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports reached 187,939 metric tons (mt) in June, up 8 percent from a year ago, while export value increased 11 percent to $505.4 million. For the first half of the year, pork export volume was up 2 percent to 1.1 million mt, but value was down 4 percent to $2.77 billion. Exports accounted for 26 percent of total pork production in June and 22 percent for muscle cuts only – each up one percentage point from a year ago. For January through June, these ratios were 25 percent and 21 percent, respectively, up slightly from last year. Export value per head slaughtered was $52.83 in June – up 10 percent from a year ago. First-half per-head value was $48.34, ...